Venture Capital investing is a portfolio game – you don’t just make one good deal. Rather, VC firms invest in several companies to spread out the risk. They know that eight or nine out of 10 investments will fail or bump along and return no real gain, while one or two might be a success.
EBITDA times a multiple is intended to be the going concern value of the operating assets of the company (often net of working capital related financing), not the value of the shares. To arrive at the value of the shares, we must then deduct non-working capital related debt from the equation.
If your business is early stage, high growth, troubled, restructuring, dependent on assets with limited life or for any other reason unable to reasonably project a constant and stable EBITDA, an EBITDA valuation methodology will likely result in an unsatisfactory result.
The QT negotiation should never fall apart over price. What really matters is the value of the financed amalgamated company, whether there is secondary support for the stock post QT and plans to move past the TSX-V.